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 Interest rate relief hopes dashed as inflation rises 

Interest rate relief hopes dashed as inflation rises

23 Jul, 2008 12:14 PM
Hopes for early interest rate relief have been dashed with the latest inflation figures coming in at the high end of expectations.

Banks led the way, with deposit and loan costs jumping 9.5pc in the June quarter, while automotive fuel cost 8.7pc more.

But fruit and vegetable prices dropped 7.4pc, and 6.5pc, respectively, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said today.

Overall, consumer price increases accelerated in the June quarter, with the CPI rising 1.5pc over the previous three months, to be 4.5pc higher than a year earlier.

Economists had been tipping gains of 1.3pc and 4.3pc, respectively, according to Bloomberg data.

A string of weaker economic figures in recent weeks had raised hopes that interest rates at 12-year highs had done enough to cool demand and contain inflation.

Some economists had also begun tipping a rate cut by the year's end, while markets had been pricing in the prospect that rates might be lower this time next year.

Today's CPI data and complementary figures released by the Reserve Bank suggest those rate cut hopes may be premature.

ICAP senior economist Matthew Johnson said the numbers came in higher than expected.

"The core measures, although taking into account the high fuel price, are probably a bit above what the RBA was anticipating," Mr Johnson said.

"So the RBA will have to revise up their inflation track. It defers a rate cut a little longer, until next year.

"But I don't think the RBA will be raising rates any time in the future."

The springboard for today's CPI jump included banking and housing, which accounted for about a third of the gain.

Even the RBA's preferred inflation gauges, which strip away the largest price movements, increased to be well above its target range of 2-3pc. On average, the twin measures came in at 4.4pc.

The Australian dollar traded at about 97.15 US cents prior to the release of data by the ABS and the RBA, and immediately jumped to 97.37 US cents before retreating to trade recently at 97 US cents.

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If interest rates and fuel rise in a quarter, naturally inflation will be higher. The Reserve Bank must show some common sense as the fuel prices are already going down.
Posted by R&R, 24/07/2008 9:46:23 AM
Petrol prices= UP. Banks interest rates=UP. Everybody elses "money in the pocket"= down.

That's not inflation; those are external price rises generated overseas. It is only logical that prices MUST go up to keep up with the external pressures. Unless I'm missing something, if the cost of producing goods goes up by 10% it is only logical that the price of the same goods will go up by a similar percentage at the check-out. In my vocabulary inflation is when the price of goods rises faster then the cost of manufacture. How on earth can they include things like Fuel and arbitrarily raised bank interest rates (only because they stuffed up) in the inflation figure beats me. Then again I was not at school the day the teacher talked about inflation.....

Posted by peter, 26/07/2008 4:57:19 AM

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