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 A cool, wet year but trend is still up 

A cool, wet year but trend is still up

05 Jan, 2012 07:03 AM
AUSTRALIA had an unusually cool and rainy year in 2011, the trend of rising temperatures damped down by the La Nina effect, which brought cyclones and floods to northern Australia.

Sydney was also hit by heavy rainfall but it remained relatively hot and 2011 was the 19th consecutive year in which the city's temperatures were higher than the long-term average.

The Bureau of Meteorology's national climate statement, released yesterday, says Australia as a whole had a cooler year than average, mainly due to rain and cloud cover caused by La Nina.

Worldwide, 2011 was the equal tenth-hottest year since instrumental records began in 1850 and the hottest La Nina year on record, the World Meteorological Organisation said.

A La Nina event takes place when cool ocean temperatures in the Pacific Ocean are sustained for a few months, causing rain and severe weather over Australia, Indonesia and Papua New Guinea.

In Sydney, the average temperature across the year was 22.6, 0.9 degrees above average, based on continual records kept at Sydney's Observatory Hill since 1858.

''We had particularly warm temperatures at the start of the year,'' said a Bureau of Meteorology climatologist, Acacia Pepler. ''There were five consecutive nights above 24 degrees in February, which has never been recorded before in Sydney.''

The soaking-wet November meant that 1369 millimetres fell in Sydney in 2011, well above the average of 1137 millimetres, while last December was the coldest since 1960.

Despite the cool ending to 2011, Ms Pepler said the Sydney weather conditions were in line with the projections from climate change models.

''We've been expecting temperatures to warm and this is within those projections,'' she said. ''What we are seeing in Sydney is definitely consistent with global-warming impacts.''

Water temperatures in the Indian Ocean suggest more warm but rainy weather is likely for Sydney in January, February and March.

''Based on other years that have had these results, there is a 60 per cent chance of having above-normal rainfall in this seasonal outlook,'' Ms Pepler said.

The World Meteorological Organisation, in its most recent update on global temperatures in 2011, said the 13 warmest years on record have occurred in the 15 years since 1997.

''Global temperatures in 2011 are currently the tenth-highest on record and are higher than any previous year with a La Nina event, which has a relative cooling influence,'' the organisation said in a statement.

''The extent of Arctic sea ice in 2011 was the second-lowest on record and its volume was the lowest.''

The most recent temperature maps produced by the US National Climatic Data Centre show that most of the Earth's surface was about half a degree warmer than the average temperatures between 1961 and 1990 - a period currently used as the global measuring stick.

They show that northern Australia, the Pacific north-west, parts of south-east Asia and a small zone in central Asia were the only land areas that had cooler than average temperatures in 2011.

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Date: Newest first | Oldest first
http://witchery.wordpress.com/2008/02/12/ceromancy-the-fine-art-of-candle-reading/

"It never ceases to amaze me how a flame will seem to grow higher or grope for more air the more you meditate upon it."

It's like, wow, how can it not be right?

Meanwhile, in the disappearing Arctic:

http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticictn/nowcast/ictn2011010518_2011010900_035_arcticictn.001.gif

Poley bears will soon walk to Iceland.

Posted by Bill Pounder, 5/01/2012 2:51:58 PM
& end of year Arctic ice:

http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticictn_nowcast_anim30d.gif

With another 4 months of freezing to go. It'll be alright.

Posted by Bill Pounder, 5/01/2012 3:26:29 PM
But aren't we meant to be getting hotter?
Posted by R, 6/01/2012 10:37:54 AM
Going the other way, on Jupiter, warm is -250 degrees F & cold is -256 degrees F, & that whips up a 400 year storm wider than 3 Earths. Is that our future hell, in reverse?

http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2010/03/jupiter-spot/

Posted by Bill Pounder, 6/01/2012 2:40:04 PM
Eh Billy?
Posted by Bushie Bill, 6/01/2012 9:47:06 PM
''The extent of Arctic sea ice in 2011 was the second-lowest on record and its volume was the lowest."

Yet who'd dare take a cargo ship through the Arctic without an icebreaker, even in summer. Currently the Arctic is chockers with ice and a definite shipping no-go zone.

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/

Even outside the Arctic, "The Coast Guard Cutter Healy escorts the Russian-flagged tanker Renda 250 miles south of Nome on Friday, making their way through ice up to five-feet thick "

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/45909554/ns/us_news-life/#.TwlTb4G27Sg

Posted by Bill Pounder, 8/01/2012 6:39:26 PM
So even when the national data shows an absence of additional warmth, Cubby dredges up a classic cherry pick to show the opposite.

Of course Sydney is getting warmer. It is our largest urban area. And gee wiz, do you think the Urban Heat Island effect might have something to do with that?

And take note, BoMmorons, warming involves the continual addition of warmth. The absence of additional warmth is not warming. And if natural cyclical variation can completely negate CO2 induced warming then clearly, the warming to date is entirely within the normal range of variation.

Posted by Ian Mott, 9/01/2012 1:58:24 PM
Once again, one has to wonder where Mott gets his information. His familiar claim that there is "absence of additional warmth" is simply factually incorrect. That is, wrong. The graph is a zigzag, but the trend is upwards.

Rather than going to some dodgy blog, for a scientific view on the ongoing warming trend, see for example: Church et al, Geophysical Research Letters, 2011, or Foster and Rahmstorf, Environmtal Research Letters, 2011.


Posted by nico, 9/01/2012 4:55:12 PM
Pounder, do your homework. The Arctic region has ice. Therefore, they use ice-breakers. The delivery of oil to Nome (not routine but hardly unusual) was due to a storm, which you might have noticed if you had read the whole story.

And - see the Comments on the story - there was a strong political reason for generating as much publicity as possible for the US Coast Guard, which is positioning itself for radically increased open water, more traffic, and ongoing Arctic territorial claims from Canada and Russia.


Posted by nico, 9/01/2012 5:14:01 PM
Yeah, nico, but we are being forever told of the near future ice-free Arctic & please get your head around the failure of the routine fuel delivery morphing into a fuel rescue mission. The ice is up to 5ft thick & "We can break it open but it is quickly closing.". They've still to get out.

But then, what do the locals know?

"The period 1949 to 1975 was substantially colder than the period from 1977 to 2009, however since 1977 little additional warming has occurred in Alaska..."

http://climate.gi.alaska.edu/ClimTrends/Change/TempChange.html

Posted by Bill Pounder, 9/01/2012 10:31:27 PM
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