The University of Southern Queensland’s Professor Roger Stone, who also is director of the Australian Centre for Sustainable Catchments, says the current La Niña weather pattern normally “winds-down” during mid to late autumn.

But we're entering autumn next week with the 30-day value of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) at +20, as at February 23 - a positive sign for ongoing above-average rainfall for many areas in the eastern States. (See separate story).

Noting that consecutive La Niña events are fairly rare, Prof Stone concedes that one US weather model – and the only one to date, but an important one – is hinting of a possible reappearance of just such a scenario.

“But at this time of the year, the golden rule is: ‘It’s too early to say’,” Professor Stone said.

“In another six or eight weeks or so, we might know the answer.”

Meanwhile, there’s no sign of the present La Niña weather pattern breaking down, he says.

The prognosis for the next few months is of “much increased rainfall probabilities around coastal areas,” – especially in Queensland’s south-east.

While the pattern will not be as intense further inland, Professor Stone still talks of “slightly above normal” rainfall probabilities.

This will be of concern to producers currently out harvesting the state’s massive sorghum crops.

“On the positive side, that can enhance soil moistures a little for the coming winter season,” Professor Stone said.

SOURCE: Extract from seasonal update in Queensland Country Life, February 28