THE future of the government's emissions trading scheme was in disarray last night with claims that the Senate vote on the bill could be delayed until May.
The possible delay, the result of the opposition blocking a procedural vote in the Senate, has cast fresh doubt on the government's ability to create an election trigger on its amended climate legislation.
Last night the government was seeking legal advice about whether it could force an earlier vote than the May sitting. Each side blamed the other for the delay, which resulted from the Senate's blocking a motion yesterday to speed up the debate.
The government has already dropped the emissions trading scheme from the parliamentary schedule this week to give priority to establishing a double dissolution election trigger on its changes to the private health insurance means test.
The potential delay comes as the government has been holding talks with the independent senator Nick Xenophon and two dissident Liberal senators about a proposal from the Greens for a compromise climate deal.
But the unlikely compromise, which would establish a short-term carbon tax, may prove stillborn as Senator Xenophon last night ruled out his crucial vote.
The Climate Change Minister, Penny Wong, and the Greens senator Christine Milne have met three times to discuss the Greens' proposal for a two-year carbon tax.
It is understood Senator Wong's office told the Greens the government was reluctant to budge on a higher carbon price, an earlier start date or giving up compensation for coal-fired electricity generators.
The Greens have proposed a two-year $23 carbon tax to start in July, with compensation for heavy-polluting, trade-exposed industries, but not coal.
The first year of the government's proposed scheme has set a carbon price of $10, starts in July 2011 and has extensive compensation for heavy industry and coal-fired electricity.
It is understood Senator Wong suggested the Greens develop an alternative package that met the government's conditions. The Greens are taking advice on this.
The government is a long way from committing to any compromise but the talks have widened in recent weeks.
Senator Wong and Senator Milne have contacted two Liberal senators, Sue Boyce and Judith Troeth, who crossed the floor last year to support an amended emissions trading scheme.
Senator Troeth said yesterday she would consider a proposal only when it had been completed and was before the Senate.
Senator Xenophon also met Senator Wong yesterday, floating a short-term carbon price of $3-$5 to encourage investment in renewable energy.
But last night Senator Xenophon was stepping back from that position. ''The extra advice I've been given suggests it would just be a nuisance tax and something more substantial is needed,'' he said. ''If you are not going to do it properly, don't do it at all.''
He reiterated his preference for an intensity-based emissions trading scheme, as opposed to the government's cap and trade system, which has been proposed by Frontier Economics.
The Climate Institute's chief executive, John Connor, also met Senator Wong's and Senator Milne's staff last week to discuss the Greens proposal.
Mr Connor said yesterday he had told Senator Wong's office that while he still supported passage of the government's scheme, the Greens' proposal would be the next best option.
The Greens would not comment on the details of the talks yesterday.
Senator Wong's spokesman also said the government would not comment.
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