Liberal Leader Malcolm Turnbull's "back me or sack me" stand off over the emisssions trading scheme has ended with his party giving him the green light to pursue amendments by negotiating with the Government.
But Mr Turnbull is still facing the prospect of a Senate revolt if he strikes a deal to amend Labor's emissions trading legislation before the conclusion of international negotiations.
Liberal and National MPs today signed off on a Coalition wish-list of amendments to protect farmers, emissions-intensive, trade-exposed industries, small businesses and power generators.
Support for the amendments have offered temporary respite for the embattled Opposition Leader.
Labor has signalled it is prepared to work constructively with Mr Turnbull to strike a deal to pass the legislation in the Senate. But it continues to insist that its legislation - amended or otherwise - will be reintroduced to Parliament next month, before the December Copenhagen climate summit.
It is at this point that Coalition senators may revolt, potentially putting Mr Turnbull's leadership under greater strain.
A Coalition analysis of Senate voting intentions obtained by The Sunday Age shows almost two-thirds of Coalition senators would be likely to defy Mr Turnbull's wishes, which leaves open the prospect of passing an amended law before the Copenhagen summit.
Out of 37 Liberal and Nationals senators, 23 have been deemed likely to either fail to vote or to vote against amended legislation, according to the analysis, compiled by an opponent of an emissions trading scheme.
Those likely to vote against the legislation include the five Nationals senators led by Barnaby Joyce and Liberals Cory Bernardi, Mathias Cormann, Alan Eggleston, Mitch Fifield, Concetta Fierravanti-Wells, Ian Macdonald and Alan Ferguson.
Only 12 senators have been identified as likely to vote in favour of amended legislation introduced before the December summit, including shadow ministers Eric Abetz, George Brandis, Helen Coonan, Michael Ronaldson and Victorian senators Scott Ryan and Judith Troeth. But because Labor only needs an extra seven votes to pass legislation in the Senate, that would be enough to pass the bill.
Several senior Coalition sources said defiance by at least 20 senators would make Mr Turnbull's position untenable.
"The point is that Turnbull will have created such a division in the Coalition that it is really just all over," said a senior Coalition source who declined to be named.
"The National Party will cross the floor without too much of a concern, but when the Libs start doing it against their own leader - and they won't do it lightly - it's got to be super serious for Turnbull."
Another Coalition source said: "I think Turnbull or any leader is always in a predicament when he can't carry his own party room with him."
Senator Joyce said it was one thing to say yes to amendments to water down a "ridiculous" and flawed "feel-good tax", but another to vote for the legislation.
"When it gets to the end, the National Party will be consistent, it will not be supporting the bill, full stop, and neither will a lot of other people," Senator Joyce said.
The amendments proposed by the Liberal leadership would exclude emissions from agriculture but allow farmers to gain credits to sell on the open market by tree planting and efficient farming practices.
The amendments would also give coal producers added protection by excluding "fugitive" emissions such as methane, emitted during mining.
There would be added compensation for electricity generators and for small businesses hit by higher power costs. Trade-exposed, emissions-intensive sectors such as aluminium and food processing would also gain greater protection.
Climate Change Minister Penny Wong said it was "self-evident" Mr Turnbull would get his amendments past the Coalition party room meeting, but added: "If Mr Turnbull cannot commit to a vote in November, it is clear he has been rolled by the climate change sceptics in his party yet again."
Mr Turnbull said the real test for Senator Wong was to explain why she was determined to force a vote before Copenhagen and provide much less protection for Australian jobs and industries than the US and Europe.
Email a friend