WITH harvest in full swing across all the major production states, analysts are generally reporting slightly lower than expected yields.
While there has been no single factor that has caused wholesale yield downgrades, generally a combination of dry conditions and frosts have caused yields to be around 10pc lower than expected in many key areas.
It is the opposite trend to last year, where yields generally ended up marginally higher than expected.
There is some thought that perhaps the poor year in 2008/09 meant people kept input costs low, and lost some upside by not having sufficient nutrients for the crop in areas which had a kind season.
Bucking the trend is the early harvesting area of South Australia, with reports from the Eyre Peninsula of a ripping year.
WA and Victoria are two states that have had farmers disappointed by early yields.
In WA, ProFarmer reports that crops in the north on lighter soils have generally suffered some slight frost damage.
The damage was not significant enough to cause a visible problem, but it has kept a lid on crop yields.
This northern area was the part of WA expected to have had the best yields.
Harvest has been an interrupted affair, with frequent light rainfall events, but it has more been a logistical problem rather than big enough events to cause downgrading.
In SA, the Eyre Peninsula, according to ProFarmer, is having an "exceptional" year.
Other early reports from key production areas are positive, although the south-east is yet to begin, and the hot weather could have taken some of the gloss off yields.
Victorian harvest has begun, with early barley reports showing a 10-15pc reduction on yield expectations.
Southern cropping areas also have concerns that the heatwave of the past fortnight will knock around quality on crops that began the period anything less than totally ripe.
The downgrading issue is the major concern.
VFF grains group president Russell Amery has heard that the lion’s share of deliveries have only been making feed grade.
He said the drop in yields, while disappointing, had to be put in perspective, given the state would still have one of its biggest production years for the decade.
The real impact of the heat has been on the pulse industry, where the hot weather burnt off remaining lentil and chickpea flowers and has significantly damaged developing grain in the lentils.
Estimates from packers predict that up to $30 million of damage has been done to crops, in terms of both yield loss and quality downgrades.
Throughout NSW crops are generally disappointing and patchy.
While there are few complete wipeouts in the north of the state, there are some patches, such as around Mungindi, where yields are very low, although it improves closer towards Moree.
Generally, the north-east of the state’s cropping area is the pick of the bunch.
Coming into harvest in the western Riverina, it is again a tale of woe. Plenty of cropped area through the region is not going to be harvested as the lack of a spring again bit hard.
And in a further unwanted irony, headers right down the east coast are racing against the clock, with rain predicted for much of the next week.
Until Sunday, showers and rain are likely to effect South Australian areas such as the mid-north, right through Victoria and the Riverina, while from Sunday onwards, there is a chance of rain through central NSW.
The Bureau of Meteorology’s long-range rainfall service is predicting falls of up to 40mm in places, although with storms forecast, there are likely to be localised heavier falls.
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