The recently formed La Nina pattern (in the central Pacific Ocean) remains officially in a weak state.
But in the US, CropCast notes that the rapid cooling seen in the Pacific lately appears all but certain to push it into moderate levels sooner rather than later.
A La Nina event, generally linked to the probability of higher rainfall in eastern Australia, is mostly unwelcome news in some parts of the US, including much of the wheatbelt.
In the US corn belt, it increases the risk of a below average trend yield to 70pc, if a La Nina event remains in place in June and July.
Development of a moderate La Nina for the rest of winter and through the US spring planting season, therefore, would affect the US grain outlook and world grain futures markets.
CropCast used four analog years (1951, 1955, 1971, & 1985) to piece together a possible scenario for the US and the big South American grain producing countries.
Keep in mind that this isn't an official forecast at this point, but the analysis serves instead, as more of a tool to see what a moderate La Nina alone might bring.
It looks like the rest of the northern winter could be wet across the US Midwest, giving early planting plenty of moisture.
In addition to the wet weather, we could see cold conditions from the western Midwest to West coast.
The actual planting season looks, however, to be showing below normal rainfall across the Midwest, South, and East, while temperatures stay near seasonal levels.
CropCast will be monitoring other factors as well to see how they might influence the long-term forecast as the northern winter progresses.
Meanwhile, the affects of the developing La Nina can certainly be seen in South America.
There, an overall dry pattern continues to plague Argentina and southern Brazil.
CropCast's current forecast calls for a rain event to cross Argentina today through Thursday, and then to shift into southern Brazil by the end of the week.
CropCast's forecast has trended a bit wetter than the current outlook for southern Brazil and northwestern Argentina, but it has still remained drier than the forecast models in most areas.
The net result is that rains appear likely to remain limited for most of the driest sections of Argentina, allowing at least one-third of the corn/soybean belt to encounter ongoing moisture stress.
Some relief could reach into Buenos Aires in the 6-10 day period.
But rains are still not expected to be generalised enough to bring widespread reductions in moisture stress.
Warmer temperatures are also expected to return next week, adding to the threat of yield loss for corn in Argentina.
The outlook is not quite as pessimistic for Brazil.
Southern areas there (central and southern Rio Grande do Sul) are expected to be the most likely area to miss out on needed showers.
The rains further to the north could limit the immediate dryness concerns in Brazil to approximately 10pc of the corn/soybeans for now.
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