Business analyst firm IbisWorld is forecasting worse things to come for Australian agriculture, following yesterday's conditional recommendation from Biosecurity Australia that Filippino bananas be allowed into the country.
According to IbisWorld, this decision points to a new trend towards higher imports of fruit and vegetables, with IbisWorld anticipating banana imports will hold 25pc of the market within five years.
IbisWorld says the latest development is a symptom of a broader trend.
"The drought has put pressure on domestic production levels, and climate change is constraining future fruit production," IbisWorld general manager (Australia), Robert Bryant, says.
"While Australia is relatively open to trade, we have always had high quarantine standards."
But Biosecurity Australia, he points out, is also considering allowing imported apples from China and the US, citrus fruits from the US and South Africa, stone fruit from the US, grapes from China and mandarins from Japan and Korea.
It is also assessing the impact of permitting the import of certain prawns, egg products, horses, chicken meat and a raft of other animal products, indicating heightened pressure on local producers and a greater exposure to foreign pests for the foreseeable future.
Banana production is worth more than $417 million to Australian farmers, and an estimated $891m at retail level, with local banana producers receiving around eight times more for their produce than their counterparts in the Philippines.
But the Australian industry is not only fearful of the price implications of competition from the Philippines, but also the risk of dangerous diseases that may come with them.
Robert Bryant says consumers will enjoy a 35pc discount on imported bananas, but at potentially significant cost to local livelihoods.
"We consume around 13.4kg of bananas per person each year," Mr Bryant says.
"If the farmers' appeal against Biosecurity Australia's decision – set down for December 12 – is unsuccessful, we'll see per capita consumption rise 14pc to 15.3kg.
"But around a quarter (400 people) of banana industry jobs may be lost."
A major concern is the risks posed by diseased bananas, and whether Australian quarantine conditions will be able to manage this.
The Australian Banana Growers Council has said it will not be feasible to prevent diseases accompanying imports, asking that the ban on imported bananas continue.
IbisWorld believes imported bananas will be sprayed with pesticides and fungicides both before and after harvest to control pests and to meet the strict Australian quarantine standards – meaning bananas from the Philippines, while cheaper, will have been exposed to more chemicals than the local product.
"Recommended quarantine measures include limiting exports to areas from which there is a low prevalence of pests, as well as ensuring export blocks are registered and inspected by AQIS on a regular basis," Mr Bryant said.
On the flip side, Mr Bryant said a major benefit of Asian imports, besides cheaper prices at the checkout, would be to prevent future shortages, such as the situation after Queensland’s Cyclone Larry in 2006.
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