There was little good news for beef producers on the short-term price front at this year's ABARE conference, with the weighted average saleyard price in 2009-2010 expected around 279 cents a kilogram, down to 272 cents in 2010-2011, from the 2008-09 price of 296 cents a kilogram.

This is blamed largely on the "effect of increased competition for Australian beef in key export markets, especially in Japan and the Republic of Korea" the forecast papers suggest.

ABARE says following a decline of one per cent in 2008-09, Australian beef exports into our biggest market – Japan – fell by 3pc in the first six months of 2009-10.

According to the forecast, Japanese beef imports are tipped to rise in the next two years, but this is expected to be filled by supplies of US beef.

"Although Japan continues to restrict US beef imports to cattle slaughtered under 21 months of age and not containing any brain, bone or spinal cord, which have a higher risk of transmitting bovine spongiform encephalopathy, US exporters have been able to provide increased volumes of compliant products, including the cuts that are in greatest demand in Japan," the report states.

"For 2009-2010 as a whole, Australian beef exports to Japan are forecast to decline by 6pc cent to 341 kilotonnes."

They should recover some, but not all ground in the coming year, and in the longer term the competition from US beef is tipped to be offset somewhat by growing demand for beef in Japan overall.

There's also been increased demand for beef in Korea, which again has largely been met by the US.