With a swag of unfavourable weather conditions reducing the 2008 NSW macadamia crop and bringing the season to an early close, there are predictions the national $1.60 a kilogram farmgate price may lift an additional 10c/kg.
Processors say buyers are starting to secure their supply in the wake of poorer yields, putting upward pressure on prices.
However, growers are hesitant to pin their hopes on any price rise, saying their main concern is that there is no surprise end-of-harvest deduction, as was the case last year, that would take returns below the notional price, which for many represents the cost of production.
Most processors agreed the large volumes of carryover stock being held in factories is preventing a market recovery, and it will take some time for this product to pass through the system and allow any significant improvement in kernel prices.
With 80pc of Australia’s macadamias - most of which are grown in the north-east of the State - now harvested, industry leaders said the total crop for this season would be down significantly on last year’s haul of 42,000 tonnes of nut-in-shell.
Normally, July would represent the halfway mark for the macadamia harvesting season.
Australian Macadamia Society industry development manager, Kim Jones, Lismore, said a lack of sunshine during the wet, North Coast summer prevented oil accumulation in nuts.
“Across the board, we have seen higher reject levels at both on-farm and the factory this season,” he said.
Hailstorms, which hit Lismore and Dunoon, the country’s macadamia capital late last year, restricted production on many farms.
Frosts too, late in the winter in low-lying orchards also had a greater impact on present yields than were initially estimated, he said.
Agrimac agronomist, John Allen, Alstonville, said disease also played a big role in yield losses.
In an attempt to cut costs on the back of the farmgate price slump, many growers have completed fewer harvesting rounds this season and some have even opted not to pick nuts up at all.
The national price offered at the start of the season was up slightly on last year’s $1.50/kg returns but the second year, in a row of record low prices, was putting ‘severe financial strain on a lot of people,’ Mr Jones said.
“Banks have refinanced quite a few operations but there has definitely been an increase in the number of farms now on the market,” he said.
Although volume to the US, one of Australia’s largest export markets, has lifted from 1.1 million kilograms in 06/07 to 1.8 million this year, the rising Australian dollar has taken returns from $15.54/kg in 2006 to $8.56/kg this year.
Meanwhile, good rain since Christmas and high soil moisture levels in orchards have set up next year’s harvest well, although the heavy flowering happening in many orchards could hamper nut development, Mr Allen said.