Production should reach 1.67 million tonnes in 2007-08.

“Forecast production in 2007-08 is higher than early-season estimates because of greater than expected resilience of vines suffering from drought stress, and water purchasing by growers in drought-affected irrigation areas,” executive director of ABARE, Phillip Glyde, says.

Despite the better than previously expected outcomes, however, production will be well below the record 1.9 million tonnes achieved in 2004-05.

The greatest increase in production in 2007-08 is expected to occur in the cool-climate grape growing regions.

Production increases in warm climate areas are forecast to be minimal because of ongoing scarcity of water for irrigation.

Following improved seasonal conditions in cool climate regions, production of red wine grape varieties is expected to increase relatively more than that of white wine grape varieties in 2007-08.

Production of both red and white wine grape varieties in warm climate regions, however, is likely to remain constrained by continued shortages of irrigation water.

Production of red grape varieties in 2007-08 is forecast to increase by 31pc from 2006-07, mostly because of an improvement in yields.

The bearing area of red grapes is forecast to increase only minimally.

Production of white grape varieties is expected to increase in 2007-08, but by less than that of red grapes, because relatively more of these grapes are grown in warm climate regions where smaller production increases are expected.

Looking ahead into 2008-09, wine grape production is projected to increase further, to 1.78 million tonnes, but to remain constrained by water availability.

Wine grape production is projected to reach 2.0 million tonnes in 2009-10, assuming a return to average seasonal conditions.

The research was conducted by ABARE and commissioned by the Grape and Wine Research and Development Corporation.