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 A good wool season turns sour 

A good wool season turns sour

3/07/2008 10:04:00 AM
The 2007-08 wool selling season finished with an average eastern market indicator price of 943 cents a kilogram, 12pc above the long-term average.

Unfortunately though, the EMI is now well below this level at 874c/kg, with threats of more price falls as supply picks up later this year and a weakening global demand.

But the 2007-08 season will be remembered as a good one for wool prices, thanks to the buoyant sales late last year and early this year when supply was low and demand was steady to strong at times.

On average the 21-23 micron wools enjoyed the ride the most, with prices for these wools averaging 40pc above their long-term average.

Finer wools were overall 10-25pc above their average, according to the Callum Downs Commodity newsletter, whilst 25 and 26 micron wools were in all about 10-20pc higher than their long-term average.

According to the Australian Wool Exchange a total of 2.27 million bales of wool were offered last financial year or wool selling season, with 1.98 million sold and 12.6 per cent of these passed in.

In all 300,000 fewer bales were sold last year than the year before and the biggest buyer of Australian wool by volume in 2007-08 was Modiano Australia, buying 137,490 bales or 6.91pc of the total offering, followed by Fox and Lillie with 131,293 or 6.6pc of the bales sold.

But for one outspoken wool buyer, the end of the selling season spelt doom and gloom.

Harvest Wool Australia wool principal, Steve Noa, said the closure of Graincorp's wool buying department and Elders greasy wool trading and risk management service was another sign of an industry in trouble.

"We are in an environment of low wool production, even lower wool demand and a fragmented selling system," he said.

Mr Noa said the further rationalisation of wool buying showed the need for radical change in the way wool is sold.

"Those who argue there should be change away from from the auction system have yet to come up with a viable alternative. There is only one option left now to maintain a fair and viable wool exchange. Centralise."

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Comments


Date: Newest first | Oldest first
Demand for wool has fallen and is still falling because ever since the dumping of the stockpile brought a huge supply shock to the trade in 2002, traders have had no security of supply. Wool has been too scarce for them to plan with confidence.

There is little point in investing in promotion of a product which you may be unable to supply. Therefore traders in wool cut back on their promotion of wool products. Therefore demand falls.

The constant prospect of increasing scarcity has over that time forced traders to always plan for reduced trading in the future. Therefore trading declines.

When in early 2006 traders were clearly trying to elevate the price to a viable level we were hit with ABARE's outrageous and erroneous price forecast of 673c. This was the Australian government's official advice to the world. That forecast retarded the price recovery by nearly a year, and caused a big shift to joining Merino ewes to meat breed rams.

This in turn caused the further big drop in supply of Merino wool which is now bankrupting even more of our clients.

The only science which could possibly have produced ABARE's 673c figure is “pin the tail on the donkey”.

Posted by Ted O'Brien on 4/07/2008 8:30:04 AM
Mr Noa is right on the money. This industry is on life support and it will be the few remaining wool producers who will have to weigh up whether the profit sacrifice is worth it. The solution for a streamlined way of harvesting and selling wool has already been proven by the now defunct AWE founded by wool visionary Jim Maple-Brown. The longer the wool industry hangs onto past practices both in the shed and marketing the quicker this once great industry will fade into obscurity. During one of the greatest global economic booms, particularly in China and India, AWI has not been able to sell an extra kilo of wool let alone for a premium.

With the $AUD now likely to stay over .95c for some considerable time, how many growers do you think will remain in the industry over the next 10 years?

Posted by woolly on 4/07/2008 8:44:12 AM

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