Tropical cyclones seem to have been giving Australia a wide berth of late, with none appearing since late January. But before the season ends, Australia could see just one more sneak in.
On average 13 cyclones develop in Australian waters each year. Over the 2008-09 season seven cyclones formed. In contrast this season we've only had four: Laurence, Magda, Neville and Olga.
Over the last week or so the monsoon system that usually sits over northern Australia at this time of year (often helping to generate cyclones) has faded out.
However, a monsoon trough has been sitting to the northeast over Vanuata and the Solomon Islands, funnelling in tropical moisture over far northern QLD, leading to showers and thunderstorms.
Just lately, computer model forecasts have been indicating that a low will intensify in this region and perhaps head into the Coral Sea by Tuesday the 16th of March. This cyclone, if it ever happens, will be called Tropical Cyclone Paul.
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